The year of living dangerously
2012 promises a rough ride for investors. Much of the industrialised world is engaged in a deleveraging process which will take several years and have negative consequences on economic growth. As a result, the global economy is extremely fragile and it won’t take much to trigger a major crisis.
Investment strategy 2011 (second part)
The emerging markets are currently going through a challenging period. Since the start of the year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has lost 6% in local currency terms.
BL-Global Flexible EUR- Situation as at 24 January 2011
After suffering from the rise of the euro in September (cfr my post from 4 October 2010), BL-Global Flexible EUR’s NAV (net asset value) had a satisfactory last three months of the year.
Thoughts on the European crisis
After being relegated to the background by expectations of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, the problems in the eurozone have resurfaced again. Here are some of my thoughts about this.
Some thoughts on currencies
Forecasting short-term and medium-term currency developments is extremely tricky. Despite this, investors need to have an overall framework for managing their currency allocation.
Some thoughts for the summer (3): Fiscal prudence versus economic slowdownThe economic statistics published in the last few weeks show that economic activity in the leading industrialised countries is starting to slow down again. Investment strategy 2010
This time last year, I wrote that the New Year tradition of making forecasts for the year to come was an even more perilous exercise than usual. My reasons at the time were linked to the lack of visibility on the economic situation and the uncertainty on the banking landscape.
Frequently asked questions (cont'd)
In the following, I try to answer some of the main questions people have posted on the blog in the past few months.
Buying opportunity in long-term government bonds
Long-term government bonds have been badly hit by expectations of economic recovery and falling investor risk aversion. Since mid-March, long-term government bonds have slumped with the yield on the 10-year bond increasing by 150 basis points (1.5%) and 75 basis points (0.75%) respectively in the United States and in Germany.
|
Perspectives: macro-economic trends and market outlook Quarterly publicationPERSPECTIVESTo find out more about macro-economic trends and the market outlook. Click here to order! |
Archives
|
2012
Latest comments
For gold to be in a bull market you need: - ...
Do the recent stock market declines represent a buying opportunity?
Le 25/08/2011 par Guy Wagner
After reading your analyse, I thought, "What about investing in ...
Do the recent stock market declines represent a buying opportunity?
Le 24/08/2011
Hi Guy, I'm a regular reader of your blog and ...
A Greek tragedy
Le 29/07/2011 par Ian Brown
hi Guy, great blog. Do you have an opinion on domestic and/or ...
BL-Global Flexible - Situation as at 10 June 2011
Le 15/06/2011
The problem is that: - Greece does not have a liquidity ...
Update on our investment strategy
Le 24/05/2011 par Guy Wagner