The year of living dangerously
2012 promises a rough ride for investors. Much of the industrialised world is engaged in a deleveraging process which will take several years and have negative consequences on economic growth. As a result, the global economy is extremely fragile and it won’t take much to trigger a major crisis.
Some thoughts on currencies
Forecasting short-term and medium-term currency developments is extremely tricky. Despite this, investors need to have an overall framework for managing their currency allocation.
Quantitative Easing (Part 2)
As was widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve has decided to resort to a
new round of quantitative easing. “QE2”, announced on Monday, will take
the form of buying around 75 billion dollars of government bonds per
month from now to the end of June 2011.
Investment strategy 2010
This time last year, I wrote that the New Year tradition of making forecasts for the year to come was an even more perilous exercise than usual. My reasons at the time were linked to the lack of visibility on the economic situation and the uncertainty on the banking landscape.
The economic situation in Greece
The inconsistencies that were predicted by many economists when the euro was introduced, but were masked by the favourable economic situation between 2000 and 2008, have now come to light with the problems in Greece.
Frequently asked questions (cont'd)
In the following, I try to answer some of the main questions people have posted on the blog in the past few months.
A defensive investment strategy
The first two quarters of 2009 couldn’t have been more different on the financial markets. While investors exhibited strong risk aversion in the first quarter, the second quarter saw the very same investors return to equities and high yield bonds.
Towards a weak euro?
In 2009, the euro's performance to date is enough to qualify it as a weak currency. Indeed, since the start of the year, the single currency has lost around 6% against sterling and some 10% against the dollar and yen.
Thoughts on the dollar
Since the subprime crisis started in the United States in the middle of last year, the dollar has lost around 16% against the euro falling to lows not seen since the 1970s when the Nixon administration took the dollar off the gold standard.
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2012
Latest comments
For gold to be in a bull market you need: - ...
Do the recent stock market declines represent a buying opportunity?
Le 25/08/2011 par Guy Wagner
After reading your analyse, I thought, "What about investing in ...
Do the recent stock market declines represent a buying opportunity?
Le 24/08/2011
Hi Guy, I'm a regular reader of your blog and ...
A Greek tragedy
Le 29/07/2011 par Ian Brown
hi Guy, great blog. Do you have an opinion on domestic and/or ...
BL-Global Flexible - Situation as at 10 June 2011
Le 15/06/2011
The problem is that: - Greece does not have a liquidity ...
Update on our investment strategy
Le 24/05/2011 par Guy Wagner